News Sentiment & Volatility Tracker

Market-wide financial-news sentiment vs. the S&P 500 · pre-market read for 2026-07-29
Today's sentiment
-0.07
Z vs. baseline
+0.22
Rolling corr (30d)
+0.14
Headlines scored
100

Daily sentiment

Mean sentiment of scored headlines each day. Below the dashed zero line = net-negative news.

S&P 500 daily return

Realized close-to-close index return, aligned to the sentiment dates above.

Rolling correlation (sentiment ↔ return)

Pearson correlation over a trailing 30-day window — how predictive sentiment has been lately.

Today's scored headlines

Sorted most-negative first. Scored by Claude (claude-haiku-4-5).

ScoreHeadlineSourceWhy
-0.80Market Open: Stocks Fall, Oil Surges as Trump Threatens Iran • 7/29/26youtube.comTrump-Iran tensions, geopolitical escalation, and oil surge risk-off.
-0.80An AI Market Correction Is Becoming a ‘Major' Credit Risk, Fitch Saysinvestopedia.comAI credit risk warning from Fitch signals systemic financial stress.
-0.80Chipmaker Rout Drags Nasdaq 100 Near Correctionyoutube.comChip rout dragging Nasdaq to correction signals major tech breakdown.
-0.70Why KOSPI And The Semiconductor Sector Is Crashingseekingalpha.comSemiconductor crash signals sector weakness; broader equity risk.
-0.70A Tired Tech Trade Looks Set to Sink the Stock Marketbarrons.comTired tech trade sinking stocks signals broad market weakness risk-off.
-0.70Nasdaq-100 is on the edge of correction territory as semiconductor stocks take another beatingmarketwatch.comNasdaq correction with chip rout signals major tech weakness risk.
-0.60More Than a Rate Decision: Consumers "Distrust" Fed as Inflation Risesyoutube.comConsumer inflation distrust and Fed credibility erosion risk-off.
-0.60Even $64 Billion in Quarterly Profit Is a Disappointment for Chip Investorswsj.comHuge profits disappointing investors; capex concerns weigh heavily.
-0.60Oil Gains, Chip Stocks Extend Losses Ahead of Fed Decision Daywsj.comChip losses extend; oil rally and Fed day uncertainty negative.
-0.60Oil jumps as U.S.-Iran resume strikes after a brief pausecnbc.comEscalating Iran-US strikes threaten crude, geopolitical risk spike.
-0.60We've never seen this level of uncertainty the day before a Fed meeting, says Bespoke's Paul Hickeyyoutube.comRecord pre-Fed uncertainty is major red flag for market dislocation.
-0.50Hyperscaler debt binge pushes yields up as investor demand coolsreuters.comHyperscaler debt concerns and cooling investor demand negative.
-0.50Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: Can Futures Hold as Oil and Chip Risk Build?fxempire.comOil and chip risks building; near-term downside pressure.
-0.50By the time the Federal Reserve meets, Wall Street usually already knows the outcome. That's not the case this time, as the Fed's rate-setting committee prepares to meet Wednesdaywsj.comUnusual Fed uncertainty ahead of meeting elevates risk-off sentiment.
-0.50Investors Rotate Out of Chip Stockswsj.comInvestor chip exit signals tech bubble deflation, risk-off momentum.
-0.50The Fed should hike interest rates, says SMBC's Joe Lavorgnayoutube.comFed rate hike call conflicts rate-cut hopes, hawkish surprise.
-0.50Investors are piling into bond funds at a rapid rate. That's a problem.marketwatch.comBond fund inflows signal stock market anxiety, risk-off rotation.
-0.40There's still risk to the downside for the Nasdaq-100, says Fairlead's Katie Stocktonyoutube.comDownside risk warning on Nasdaq-100; technical concern.
-0.40Explainer: What are credit default swaps and why are they spooking AI investors?reuters.comCDS spikes and credit stress concerns spook risk appetite.
-0.40Morgan Stanley Bankers Were Pressured to Approve Mortgages for Wealthy Clientswsj.comMortgage approval pressure suggests lending standards risk and stability concerns.
-0.40Volatility Trends to Monitor & Ways Fed Will Rattle VIX Momentumyoutube.comElevated volatility ahead of Fed meeting signals heightened uncertainty.
-0.40Non-Tech Stocks Could Be Headed for a Downturnbarrons.comNon-tech downturn risk signals broad economic weakness ahead.
-0.30Fed Expected to Hold Rates, But Warsh Could Shock the Streetyoutube.comWarsh potential shock adds uncertainty to expected steady rates.
-0.30Semiconductor Forecasts – AI Stocks Test Support Ahead of Fedfxempire.comAI stocks testing support ahead of Fed; weakness signal.
-0.30Can Markets Survive Big Tech Earnings, Fed Rate Call, Iran Fears Today?barrons.comMultiple major risks confluence (earnings, Fed, geopolitics) uncertainty.
-0.30China regulator to meet solar industry on curbing competition, local media reportsreuters.comSolar competition regulation suggests margin pressure in renewables.
-0.30The "Wall Of Worry" And This Correctionseekingalpha.comCorrection discussion with wall-of-worry suggests market stress.
-0.30Jim Cramer says Wall Street is fleeing the AI trade and buying these stocks insteadcnbc.comWall Street fleeing AI trade signals tech bubble deflation risk.
-0.30U.S. Stocks Mixed as Chips Rout Continueswsj.comStocks mixed with chip rout ongoing; weakness outweighs gains.
-0.30Seth Ginns on Clarity Act's Stall & Interest Rate Impacts on Cryptoyoutube.comCrypto regulation uncertainty and rate impacts create headwinds.
-0.30‘DANGEROUSLY LOW': Grave concerns over US military stockpilesyoutube.comMilitary stockpile concerns create geopolitical risk-off sentiment.
-0.20First Financial: Strong Q2 But Limited Upside Given Valuation (Rating Downgrade)seekingalpha.comDowngrade offsets Q2 strength; valuation concerns dominate.
-0.20Warsh's rate decision is a cliffhanger. These trades might offer a cluecnbc.comWarsh rate decision uncertainty; cliffhanger adds volatility risk.
-0.20Thousands of Audi workers protest over threatened plant closurereuters.comAudi plant closure protests signal European auto sector stress.
-0.20The dollar's rally matters — but it still won't help Fed's Warsh win the inflation fightmarketwatch.comDollar rally and inflation persistence complicate policy path.
-0.20Saudi Arabia has a new, and pricier, workaround to export its oilmarketwatch.comHigher crude workaround suggests supply-cost inflation headwind emerges.
-0.20Mining equities lag metals rally as tech crowding, war risk weigh on juniors | John Feneckkitco.comMining lag amid tech crowding and war risk suggests uncertainty.
-0.20Shein Discloses FTC Investigation Into Fast-Fashion Retailer's U.S. Operationswsj.comFTC investigation of retailer adds regulatory risk to consumer sector.
+0.00Alger Mid Cap Focus Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Reviewseekingalpha.comPortfolio activity review; no macro signal.
+0.00Trump's Crypto Bonanza Is Biggest Clarity Act Hurdleyoutube.comCrypto policy clarity; minimal broad equity market impact.
+0.00Barnes and Noble CEO: 'The Odyssey' is Our Best-Selling Bookyoutube.comBook sales anecdote; no systemic market relevance.
+0.00Grant Thornton Advisors to Buy CBIZ for $3 Billionwsj.comM&A deal; no significant macro signal.
+0.00Calamos Global Convertible Fund: Q2 2026 Contributors And Detractorsseekingalpha.comFund holdings review; no market-moving signal.
+0.00Dow and Nasdaq stock set for another mixed open ahead of Fed decisionproactiveinvestors.comMixed open expected; neutral market color.
+0.00Grant Thornton to buy professional services firm CBIZ in $5 billion cash dealreuters.comM&A deal in services; no systemic equity signal.
+0.00Reweighting The Dow Jones Industrial Averageseekingalpha.comIndex reweighting; mechanical adjustment, no signal.
+0.00Vision Capital Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Activityseekingalpha.comFund portfolio activity; no macro implication.
+0.00Chart Of The Day: Now, That's What I Call Market Rotationseekingalpha.comRotation observation; technical color without directional signal.
+0.00Conestoga Small Cap Composite Q2 2026 Portfolio Activityseekingalpha.comPortfolio activity update; no market signal.
+0.00Coherent: Right Thesis, Wrong Timing - Why We're Staying At Buy After A 34% Drawdownseekingalpha.comSingle stock valuation disagreement, not macro-relevant.
+0.00Performance Insights - July 2026seekingalpha.comGeneric performance review without market-moving content.
+0.00NeoGenomics, Inc. (NEO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.comEarnings transcript without headline sentiment indicator.
+0.00Audi continues U.S. product push with three-row Q9 SUVcnbc.comAuto product launch is firm-specific, not macro.
+0.00Asian Currencies Consolidate Ahead of FOMC Decisionwsj.comCurrency consolidation before FOMC is positioning, not fundamental.
+0.00Australia's Perpetual says EQT's $1.78 billion bid not in best interests of shareholdersreuters.comM&A dispute is company-specific; no macro signal.
+0.00Review & Preview: ‘One Big Global Trade'barrons.comVague review-preview commentary without directional bias.
+0.00Big tech debate is moving away from capital spending to capital structure: Plexo Capital's Lo Toneyyoutube.comBig tech debate shift is sector rotation, not index direction.
+0.00The Market Is Emotional - You Should Profit From Itseekingalpha.comEmotional market observation without directional market view.
+0.00Barnes & Noble CEO on Strategy, Book Sales and Possible IPOyoutube.comRetail CEO commentary; no macro market relevance.
+0.00Latigo Biotherapeutics Commences IPO Process For Pain Treatment Pipelineseekingalpha.comBiotech IPO process is company-specific, not index-moving.
+0.00Citi Teams With Infor to Debut Invoice Processing Toolpymnts.comTool launch; no macro or market-wide signal.
+0.00Celestica Inc. (CLS:CA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcriptseekingalpha.comEarnings call transcript without sentiment direction.
+0.0044 states are aligned on one thing in their fight against prediction markets. It's about sports wageringcnbc.comState prediction market regulations are niche policy, non-market-moving.
+0.00Dorchester Minerals: Strong Buy As Forward Yield Approaches 18%seekingalpha.comHigh yield MLP valuation call; sector-specific, not macro.
+0.10Fed Likely Holding Interest Rates Unchanged Today—But Some Dissent Expectedforbes.comStable rates expected; potential dissent adds minor uncertainty.
+0.10Wall Street's ‘Big Wednesday' Offers Big Test to Summer Rotation Tradebarrons.comRotation trade test could be market-moving but uncertain outcome.
+0.10Russia to extend diesel export ban, but could lift it quickly if situation improves, sources sayreuters.comRussia diesel ban flexibility signals modest geopolitical easing.
+0.10Aston Martin reports narrower second-quarter lossreuters.comAston Martin loss narrowing; marginal automotive improvement.
+0.10Interface: Execution And Innovation Continue To Drive Growthseekingalpha.comSingle company growth execution; minimal index impact.
+0.10Ardagh Metal Packaging: EBITDA Outperformance Supports Further Upsideseekingalpha.comSingle firm outperformance; modest positive for that name only.
+0.10Nikkei Rises 0.9%, Led by Chip, Auto Stockswsj.comAsian tech gains modestly positive but not broad index move.
+0.10Mark Zuckerberg Blasts Centralization of A.I. Powernytimes.comPro-competition AI stance mildly positive for tech competition.
+0.10Value Outperforms Growth This Year, Powered Bywsj.comValue outperformance suggests modest sector rotation, slight positive.
+0.10Natgas producer Expand Energy beats second-quarter profit estimatesreuters.comSingle energy beat positive but non-systemic.
+0.10The Market Lost Its Mind, But You Shouldn'tseekingalpha.comMarket emotional excess but sustainable, mildly reassuring tone.
+0.10The U.S. will import Mexican cattle again. Here's what that means for high beef prices.marketwatch.comMexican cattle imports modestly positive for beef prices, consumer.
+0.20Economy is poised to show strong second-quarter growth — but only after a look under the hoodmarketwatch.comStrong Q2 growth supports economic resilience, mildly constructive.
+0.20Lemonade: Favorable Reinsurance Shift And Pushing Toward Profitsseekingalpha.comFavorable shift and profitability push mildly positive for insurer.
+0.20New Fed focus on money supply might aid inflation thinking at the marginsreuters.comMoney supply focus aids inflation fighting; marginal policy positive.
+0.20Saudi Arabia's Sabic Narrows Loss on Higher Selling Prices, Despite Lower Volumeswsj.comSaudi chemical company narrows losses; Gulf resilience signal.
+0.20Buy The Dip: 3 Top European AI Stocksseekingalpha.comEuropean AI stock dip-buy suggests tactical buying opportunity.
+0.20Mark Zuckerberg Says U.S. Should Accelerate AI Development, Not Restrict Itwsj.comPro-business AI stance mildly positive but non-binding.
+0.20Dow jumps over 540 points as earnings, lower oil offset chip selloffinvezz.comMixed bounce on earnings offsets chips; net neutral-positive.
+0.20Trump Administration Moves to Spare Space Companies From Environmental Reviewswsj.comReduced environmental rules aids space sector, pro-growth policy.
+0.30AI Capex Hits A Tipping Point As Investors Demand More Corporate Disciplineseeitmarket.comInvestor discipline demand suggests AI capex cycle maturing positively.
+0.30The Average Stock Is At Another New All-Time Highseekingalpha.comNew all-time highs suggest continued broad equity strength.
+0.30Vans-Owner VF Raises Sales Guidance after Quarterly Loss Narrowswsj.comRaised guidance despite loss; positive forward signal.
+0.30Hermes Sales Pick Up as Luxury Sector Eyes Upswingwsj.comLuxury sector upswing; consumer strength in high-end segment.
+0.30Birkin bag maker Hermes posts 7% rise in quarterly salesreuters.comLuxury sales rise; affluent consumer health constructive.
+0.30AI race redraws Asian air cargo, replacing e-commerce as growth enginereuters.comAI cargo boom signals strong capex cycle continuation.
+0.30SpaceX, Blue Origin could get quicker launch approval under FAA move to waive environmental rulescnbc.comWaived environmental rules accelerate space company launches, growth positive.
+0.40Corporate Earnings Strength Helps Offset AI Doubts And Geopolitical Riskseekingalpha.comEarnings strength offsets geopolitical worries; moderately constructive tone.
+0.40The Market Is Afraid Of Capex But It's An Accumulation Opportunityseekingalpha.comCapex weakness viewed as accumulation opportunity; contrarian bullish.
+0.40June shipments of foreign branded phones in China jumped 66.3%, CAICT data showsreuters.comChina phone imports surge; consumer tech demand strengthening.
+0.40Renewables firm EDPR's recurring first-half profit jumps 33%, driven by US businessreuters.comRenewables profit surge; clean energy transition momentum.
+0.40Trump administration to ban new Chinese robots and inverters, protecting US AI buildoutreuters.comBanning Chinese AI inputs protects US AI buildout, growth-positive.
+0.50Hyperscalers Deserve The Benefit Of The Doubt And Doomsday Predictions Are Wrongseekingalpha.comBullish case for hyperscalers rejects doomsday AI narratives.
+0.50Morning Bid: US profit growth mushroomsreuters.comProfit growth surge supports economic strength narrative.
+0.60‘Nothing seems to shake this market.' Why it's time to go all-in on stocks, according to these bullish strategists.marketwatch.comMarket resilience bullish strategist call; risk-on sentiment.
+0.60Australia Inflation Cooled in Second Quarterwsj.comInflation cooling is bullish for Fed easing, market recovery.
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