News Sentiment & Volatility Tracker

Market-wide financial-news sentiment vs. the S&P 500 · pre-market read for 2026-09-25
Today's sentiment
-0.02
Z vs. baseline
+1.27
Rolling corr (30d)
+0.39
Headlines scored
100

Daily sentiment

Mean sentiment of scored headlines each day. Below the dashed zero line = net-negative news.

S&P 500 daily return

Realized close-to-close index return, aligned to the sentiment dates above.

Rolling correlation (sentiment ↔ return)

Pearson correlation over a trailing 30-day window — how predictive sentiment has been lately.

Today's scored headlines

Sorted most-negative first. Scored by Claude (claude-haiku-4-5).

ScoreHeadlineSourceWhy
-0.60A Strong September Labor Market Report To Crush Stocks And Bondsseekingalpha.comStrong jobs crush bonds and equities; hawkish shock to rate path.
-0.50These two market gauges may signal a big risk-off event for the market, says BofAmarketwatch.comRisk-off signal from major bank; warns of downturn.
-0.50It Is Time To Prepare For Higher Oil And Gas Prices For Longerseekingalpha.comHigher oil and gas prices longer-term; inflation and cost pressure.
-0.40Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data in Focus as Another Fed Rate Hike Looks Possiblewsj.comStrong labor data and possible hike ahead signal tighter policy.
-0.40Consumer Sentiment Ticked Lower in Septemberwsj.comDeclining consumer sentiment signals economic softening risk.
-0.40Bank Lending to Eurozone Businesses Halved in Augustwsj.comSharp drop in Eurozone credit signals economic stress abroad.
-0.40Bond yields are SOARINGyoutube.comSharp yield spike signals rate shock; significant equity headwind.
-0.40Bond Yields Soar, Spiking Fed Rate Hike Betsyoutube.comSoaring yields spiking rate-hike expectations; significant bearish signal.
-0.30Two More Interest Rate Hikes "Very Likely" for 2026, Earnings Boost Investor Confidenceyoutube.comRate hikes headwind despite earnings optimism; tightening bias dominates.
-0.30STRANGLEHOLD EXPOSED: China still has rare-earth leverage America CANNOT breakyoutube.comSupply chain vulnerability; geopolitical risk to critical materials.
-0.30Dislocation In Market Price Of High Yield Investmentsseekingalpha.comHigh-yield dislocations signal credit stress emerging.
-0.30Don't expect diesel prices to decline to a point where pressure dissipates on its own: Rebecca Babinyoutube.comPersistent diesel pressure; inflation/cost concern unabating.
-0.30AI Infrastructure Buildout Risksseekingalpha.comAI buildout risks signal overextension and correction worry.
-0.30Crypto exchange Bitget pauses withdrawals after $350 million stolen in hackreuters.comCrypto hack signals financial stability concerns; modest risk-off tone.
-0.30U.S. Treasury Yields Stay Near Multiyear Highs in Asian Tradewsj.comElevated yields signal hawkish expectations; headwind for stocks.
-0.30An absence of significant economic slowdown doesn't mean no signs of stagflation risks. Here's whycnbc.comStagflation risk discussion; moderate caution for growth equities.
-0.3030-year fixed mortgage rate jumps sharply Thursday to 7.45%cnbc.comRising mortgage rates signal demand pressure; housing headwind.
-0.30Why investors aren't buying yet another attempt by the Treasury to calm the rattled bond marketmarketwatch.comTreasury intervention failure signals lost confidence in easing.
-0.20Unions at Chile's Escondida mine reject bid to pause contract talks after worker's deathreuters.comLabor unrest at major mine; modest supply and cost pressures.
-0.20KG on Crude & Deisel's Price Action, Consumer Sentiment Dip & Durable Goods Ordersyoutube.comMixed economic signals with consumer sentiment dip headwind.
-0.20Fed's Schmid: Need to understand if AI "ecosystem" getting too big to failreuters.comSystemic risk concern about AI; mild risk-off tone.
-0.20Yields keep rising, Novo's tough week, why cat product sales are surging and more in Morning Squawkcnbc.comRising yields and mixed economic data; mild headwind.
-0.20Market Absorbs Flood Of Treasury Bills As Yields Riseseekingalpha.comRising yields absorb bills; tightening financial conditions headwind.
-0.20Warsh's regime change at the Fed pushes ahead – and meets resistancecnbc.comFed leadership uncertainty; mixed near-term equity implications.
-0.20Photonics Leaders Being Soldfxempire.comSector selling; mild risk-off signal in growth names.
-0.20Crypto platform Bitget suspects North Korea is responsible for $352 million hackcnbc.comNorth Korea hack elevates cyber/systemic risk concerns.
-0.20Asian Currencies Consolidate as Treasury Yields Hit New Highswsj.comHigh treasury yields pressuring emerging FX; risk-off tone.
-0.20Why America is missing a million home sales a yearyoutube.comHousing supply shortfall signals structural economic constraint.
-0.20Bond Yields Are at 19-Year Highs. Is This The New Normal?investopedia.comStructurally high yields pressure equity valuations; modest headwind.
-0.20Finnish leader pleads with Musk to help Ukraine hit Russian missile launchersreuters.comRussia-Ukraine escalation risk; modest geopolitical concern.
-0.10Florida Railroad Brightline Files for Bankruptcy to Cut Heavy Debt Burdenwsj.comCompany bankruptcy; minor negative, idiosyncratic not systemic.
-0.10Crypto's biggest hacks and heistsreuters.comCrypto crime recap; minor negative for risk sentiment broadly.
-0.10Data center IPO hopefuls brave tougher market as investor scrutiny growsreuters.comIPO market caution and scrutiny; mild headwind to risk appetite.
-0.10Satya Nadella: "Trust is going to be the biggest issue for us"youtube.comCEO trust concern; modest negative for tech sector sentiment.
-0.10Italy's IFIS replaces CEO after central bank audit finds issues, shares sinkreuters.comSingle bank issue; limited broad market relevance.
-0.10Arbor Realty: Short Sellers Vs. Insider Buyers Battle (Rating Downgrade)seekingalpha.comSingle stock downgrade; minimal S&P 500 systemic impact.
-0.10Virginia tech CEO, Russian national charged with hiding firm's Russian ties from U.S. governmentcnbc.comSingle company compliance issue; limited market-wide relevance.
-0.10Saudi Arabia Ramps Up Oil Exports Via Hormuzyoutube.comOil supply surge could pressure prices; inflationary risk easing.
-0.10Jake Hanley Calls U.S. Diesel Export Ban "Really Bad Idea" Amid Record Pricingyoutube.comDiesel policy criticism; minor commodity/logistics concern.
+0.00Dow, Nasdaq Wrap Up Another Busy September Weekschaeffersresearch.comMarket recap with no directional signal or economic content.
+0.00First US trial against TikTok to open Mondaytechxplore.comRegulatory event; no immediate market-moving economic signal.
+0.00JPMorgan Says Oil Price Endgame Is Hard To Predict; Here's My Playbookseekingalpha.comOil analysis with uncertain forecast; no clear market direction.
+0.00Dow Gains 150 Points; US Durable Goods Orders Flat In Augustbenzinga.comFlat durable goods and modest dow gain; neutral economic signal.
+0.00Top AI companies call for safety measures while critics warn regulation could stifle innovationfoxbusiness.comAI regulation debate; no consensus or immediate market impact.
+0.00JPMorgan Preferreds: The Temptation Of A 54% Redemption Upsideseekingalpha.comBond market opportunity; no broad equity market implication.
+0.00U.S. Trade Rep. Greer: More details will be released next week on trade details with Chinayoutube.comTrade details pending; no information to assess impact.
+0.00Don't Fall for Bond Funds That Say They're Beating the Marketwsj.comBond fund investing advice; no macro market signal.
+0.00Durable Goods Orders Were Unchanged in Augustwsj.comUnchanged durable goods; neutral, no growth or contraction signal.
+0.00Details on U.S.-China trade negotiations coming Monday, USTR Greer sayscnbc.comUpcoming trade details; no information yet to assess.
+0.00Central Bank Signals Matter—But These Forces Tell Us Morebarrons.comCentral bank commentary; abstract without specific signal.
+0.00The Ultimate 5% Yield Game: Bonds Vs. Stocksseekingalpha.comYield comparison; no macro directional implication.
+0.00Oil At $107, Yields Near 5.5%, Still No Breakdownseekingalpha.comOil and yield levels recap; no breakdown means stability.
+0.00‘We were wrong.' Why Morgan Stanley changed its tune on the U.S. dollar — and what it expects now.marketwatch.comCurrency forecast shift; limited direct S&P 500 macro impact.
+0.00Volatility Has A Memory (Technical Analysis)seekingalpha.comTechnical commentary; no directional macro signal.
+0.00In the U.S.-China Rivalry, One Has a Slight Edge. AI Is a Wild Card.barrons.comUS-China rivalry; neutral strategic commentary.
+0.00When Strong Earnings Meet Crowded Marketsseekingalpha.comEarnings strength offset by valuation crowding; mixed signal.
+0.00Tech Companies' Cash Burn Isn't the Problem You Might Thinkbarrons.comNeutral commentary on tech fundamentals; no clear direction.
+0.00Don't FIGHT the Fed or the bond market: Top tech investoryoutube.comYield-driven advice; reflects current market dynamic, not directional.
+0.00Gabelli Opportunities In Live And Sports ETF Q2 2026 Commentaryseekingalpha.comFund commentary; no actionable macro signal.
+0.00Keeley Dividend ETF Q2 2026 Commentaryseekingalpha.comFund commentary; neutral market signal.
+0.00Review & Preview: It's All About the Yieldsbarrons.comYield-focused recap; describes current state, not directional.
+0.00What Makes Bitcoin, Ethereum's Rally "Impressive" & Fallout in Failed Clarity Act Voteyoutube.comCrypto rally; limited S&P 500 relevance.
+0.00The US floated an AI hotline with China. Beijing hasn't signed on.youtube.comUS-China diplomatic effort; no clear market implication.
+0.00Bond Traders Are Paying Too Much Attention to the Oil Pricewsj.comTechnical bond market commentary; no macro catalyst.
+0.00Trump Welcomes Xi With AI Concerns at Forefrontyoutube.comTrump-Xi summit AI discussion; neutral geopolitical tone.
+0.10Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500 Forecast: Bulls Eye Key Breakoutsfxempire.comTechnical analysis bullish tone; mild positive sentiment.
+0.10European Gas Prices Headed for 5% Weekly Loss But Storage Concerns Remain in Focuswsj.comGas price decline positive; storage concern offset.
+0.10Trump's Summit With Xi: Three Things Business Leaders Should Watchwsj.comTrump-Xi summit watchpoint; potential trade cooperation hopeful.
+0.10Nasdaq futures gain 145 points: 5 things to know before Wall Street opensinvezz.comNasdaq futures rebound; modest positive sentiment.
+0.10After capital-markets day flop, Novo strikes licensing deal that sends a Swedish company's stock soaringmarketwatch.comM&A activity positive; company-specific upside, not broad bullish.
+0.10U.S. Treasury yields tick higher as global bond rout slowscnbc.comBond stability; neutral to slightly supportive for equities.
+0.10Trump-Xi Summit Small on Substance, Big on Pompyoutube.comGeopolitical stability confirmed; minor positive for risk appetite.
+0.10Software's Recovery Is Still Loadingseekingalpha.comSoftware recovery signals tech resilience; mildly positive.
+0.10Nikkei Rises 0.5%, Led by Bank Stockswsj.comBank stock strength signals rate-environment positivity.
+0.10U.S. Intercedes for Elon Musk's X Over European Finenytimes.comUS-EU relations stabilizing on regulation; minor positive.
+0.20Lifetime Brands Is Finally Looking Ready For An Upgradeseekingalpha.comSingle stock upgrade; negligible macro impact on broad market.
+0.20Nasdaq Index: AI Infrastructure Leads as Energy Stocks Give Back Oil Premiumfxempire.comAI infrastructure strength outweighs energy; modest positive tilt.
+0.20Dow jumps 190 points as oil retreats but Treasury yields stay elevatedinvezz.comOil retreat positive; yields elevated but oil weakness bullish.
+0.20Energy Hedges The AI Tradeseekingalpha.comEnergy hedge for AI growth; supports tech while managing inflation.
+0.20How to keep profiting from AI while shielding your portfolio against the risk of a slowdownmarketwatch.comAI upside with risk management; balanced constructive tone.
+0.20The Ezra Klein Show: Jensen Huang Thinks A.I. Alarmism Has Gone Too Farnytimes.comAI leader calms alarmism; reduces regulatory/existential risk concerns.
+0.20US Fed plans to raise bank oversight thresholds, sources sayreuters.comDeregulatory move could ease bank constraints; mildly positive.
+0.20Bond Selloff Pauses, Stocks Edge Higher as Market Sentiment Cautiously Improveswsj.comBond volatility easing, equity sentiment improving; mildly positive.
+0.20Oil Prices Fall as U.S.-Iran Diplomacy and Regional Tensions Remain in Focuswsj.comGeopolitical easing reduces energy risk; modestly bullish.
+0.20Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Iran Truce Talks Ease Crude Risk as Saudi Threats Persistfxempire.comDiplomatic progress reduces energy/geopolitical tail risk.
+0.20Oil Declines as US and Iran Explore Agreement to Reopen Hormuzyoutube.comUS-Iran deal discussion eases oil risk premium.
+0.20US, Iran Explore Deal to Reopen Hormuz, Saudi Oil Exports Hit War-Time Highyoutube.comDiplomatic progress reduces geopolitical risk; modestly constructive.
+0.20Oil falls amid optimism over potential diplomatic solution to the Iran conflictcnbc.comIran diplomacy reduces geopolitical premium; modestly supportive.
+0.30Saudi Arabia crude oil exports hit highest level since Iran war began despite pipeline outagecnbc.comHigher oil exports support energy sector; modest positive for markets.
+0.30Hincks: Iran Peace Hopes Curb Crude Oil, "Add Perspective" to Historic Yield Spikeyoutube.comIran peace hopes relieve oil spike; yields contextualized positively.
+0.30Carrier: Data Center Growth, Short-Cycle Recovery And Valuation Upsideseekingalpha.comData center growth and valuation upside; AI tailwind supports.
+0.30Nasdaq 100: Futures Lead the Stock Market Rebound as Bond Yields Stay Highfxempire.comFutures rebound; yields high but bonds not breaking confidence.
+0.30Why the alternative to the ‘clear and present' danger from bond yields is this AI-fueled market that's quietly outperformedmarketwatch.comAI outperformance vs. yield headwind; constructive tech narrative.
+0.30China saw 'surprise' jump in U.S. orders ahead of Trump-Xi summit, private survey showscnbc.comChina demand recovery supports US exports; cautiously optimistic.
+0.30Borrowing Costs Are Soaring. They're Not Slowing a Robust U.S. Economy.wsj.comEconomic resilience despite rate hikes; constructive for equities.
+0.30Reducing the $2T federal deficit could lower inflation, interest rates for Americans: CRFBfoxbusiness.comDeficit reduction could lower rates and inflation; positive outlook.
+0.40Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood: Expect growth north of 7% over the next 3-5 yearsyoutube.comHigh growth expectations from major investor; mildly constructive.
+0.40AI Revs the Economic Enginewsj.comAI drives economic growth; bullish macro narrative.
+0.40Bond Selloff Fades, US-Iran Said to be Exploring Phased Deal, Trump-Xi Summityoutube.comBond selloff eases, Iran peace explored; geopolitical relief positive.
+0.40The Robust U.S. Economy Powers Through Rate Increases and Rising Bond Yieldswsj.comStrong economy withstanding rates; constructive backdrop for equities.
↓ signal.json ↓ history.csv